2025 is shaping up to be a year of shakeups and special elections for the Minnesota Legislature after the disqualification of one DFL legislator and the tragic passing of another within the last few days.

A couple of other House and Senate seats may be impacted by ongoing court cases leaving uncertainty in how the final balance of power will shake out.

The whole situation is historic, according to Hamline University Political Science Professor David Schultz.

“You know, I’ve been here 30-some years,” he began. “This is the most confusion and the most question marks I’ve ever seen.”

The Minnesota House will gavel in on Jan. 14 with a 67-66 Republican majority now that disqualified DFL Rep. Curtis Johnson decided not to appeal.

House Minority Leader Lisa Demuth (R – Cold Spring) expects to assume the speakership, she confirmed on Sunday.

“So we know there will be a special election, but on day one of session, we have 67 votes. We fully expect that we will — I will be elected as speaker, and we will get to work for the people of Minnesota as that process takes place,” Demuth said.

Schultz said whether or not Republicans keep the majority, they are likely to keep established leadership positions.

“They get to pick the speaker, they get to pick the committees, the committee chairs, and so forth. And even if the Democrats do eventually come on par — get back to 67-67, the Republicans don’t necessarily have to agree to make any type of changes at this point,” he explained.

Democrats will assume leadership in the Senate, but the news of Sen. Kari Dziedzic’s (DFL – Minneapolis) passing of cancer over the weekend brought the chamber to a 33-33 tie.

“It is also deadlocked at this point,” Schultz said. “There will be, eventually, a special election. Presumably, given the seat that it is from Minneapolis, the Democrats will get it. But that’s going to be a body that also, for at least the next several weeks, are going to be hard to get anything done.”

Demuth took a moment to remember her late colleague from across the aisle, calling Dziedzic “just an amazing person.”

“We didn’t have to align politically, but we could align personally on a number of things. And what a tragic loss, but what a legacy she leaves in the work that she’s done,” Demuth said.

In the meantime, two more seats could rock the power balance. DFL Rep. Brad Tabke’s seat is in the court’s hands after Scott County officials admitted to losing 21 ballots, potentially affecting the race won on a 14-vote margin. And, DFL Sen. Nicole Mitchell is awaiting a felony trial.

“We don’t know how that’s going to play out,” Schultz said.

“So if I were to use the words uncertainty [and] gridlock in the same sentence, that would be describing exactly where we’re headed for the next several weeks, if not the next several months, for the Minnesota Legislature,” Schultz added.

“…And this really does speak to a reality about how closely divided the State of Minnesota is.”

The only certainty, according to Schultz, is split control of the chambers, and he said he expects that alone to lead to gridlock.

“The fiscal forecast is suggesting down the line, in the next few years, we’re going to be running multi-billion dollar deficits,” he said.

“So take the lack of money, take the polarization, couple that with split control and very tight control of the House — all of this is clearly a recipe for a very difficult session in terms of governance.”

It’s unclear when the two guaranteed special elections will happen.

Gov. Tim Walz announced over the weekend that the special election to replace Johnson would be held on Jan. 28, but Republicans fought back on Sunday, arguing he cannot even call for one until 22 days after the session starts under state law.

“The statute is very clear that says, with an election contest, the Governor would call for a special election 22 days after the first day of session. That’s when that special election can be called for, not when it takes place, but when it’s called for,” Demuth said.

“It’s a pretty good argument,” Schultz said, adding that it could leave the balance of power un-finalized more than a month, or so, into the Session.

“And that becomes important because, by that point, the Legislature has pretty much lost its first month or so of the Session, when there’s only a limited number of days that they can actually be in session before the Constitution says they have to adjourn,” he continued.

Gov. Walz’s office did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Sunday.

Current House Speaker Rep. Melissa Hortman’s office did not respond to our interview requests on Sunday.

On Monday, her office provided the following statement:

“It would not be appropriate for Republicans to install a new speaker because Minnesotans voted for a tied House. House DFLers expect to win the special election in District 40B by a significant margin, the same as we did in the general election. The only appropriate path forward is for Democrats and Republicans to work together under a power sharing agreement.”