KSTP/SurveyUSA poll: House races could be referendum on 2023 session
By nearly every measure the 2023 session of the Minnesota Legislature was history-making, from billions in new spending and taxes to paid family and medical leave to legalizing recreational marijuana.
The decisions that were made with Democrats in charge of all levers of state government impacted every single Minnesotan in some way. We’ll find out in November what Minnesota voters think of what was passed.
“Republicans have in this survey a real advantage on taxing and spending issues, and they will emphasize those in the fall campaign,” Carleton College political analyst Steven Schier said after reviewing our latest KSTP-TV/SurveyUSA results.
When asked about the nearly 40% increase in state spending over the next two years, 40% of respondents said that was too much. Another 26% said it was the right amount and 11% said it wasn’t enough. As for gas tax increases tied to the rate of inflation and a one-cent increase in metro area sales taxes, 55% said it was too much, while 27% said it was the right amount and 6% said the increases weren’t high enough.
A majority of poll respondents also think rebates approved by the state Legislature and governor were not enough. Many Minnesotans received $520 per couple or $260 per individual, with some getting more if they had dependent children. All of the rebates were subject to income caps. In our survey, 58% said the rebates were not enough, 22% said the right amount and 7% said they were too much.
While Schier thinks those poll results indicate some advantages for Republicans, he says Democrats can find hope in the survey when they hit the campaign trail.
“Democrats have advantages on family and medical leave, on recreational marijuana, and they will emphasize a lot of the benefits that are coming from their new legislation,” Schier says.
The paid family and medical leave that starts in 2026 has the support of 61% of those surveyed, while only 20% are against the program.
Recreational marijuana and cannabis products will be available for retail sales starting in 2025, and poll respondents were definitely high on the idea, with 65% approving of the new law and only 26% opposed.
The most popular new legislation approved by the Democratic majority is free breakfast and lunch for all Minnesota school students. A robust 72% approve of the idea with only 21% opposed.
SurveyUSA interviewed 2,100 total adults from the state of Minnesota from Jan. 24-29. Of the adults, 1,853 were identified as being registered to vote and were asked a series of questions. This research was conducted online, using a nonprobability sample of online adult panelists chosen randomly by Lucid Holdings LLC of New Orleans. The combined pool of survey respondents was weighted to U.S. Census CPS targets for gender, age, race, and education; to U.S. Census ACS targets for home ownership, and to recalled 2020 presidential vote.
Of the respondents included in this survey, 36% identify themselves as Democrats, 33% as Republicans and 24% as independents.
View the full survey results below: