It wasn’t so long ago that Minnesota had four or five congressional races considered to be competitive and attracting millions in campaign cash from special interests around the country. So far in 2024, only $765,000 from outside interests has been spent on Minnesota congressional races.

“The smart money outside of the state has decided that there aren’t many, if any, competitive races in Minnesota this fall congressionally,” says Carleton College political analyst Steven Schier.

That also means no big money pouring into Minnesota as it has in recent election cycles. In 2018, a record $46 million was spent in Minnesota influencing congressional races. The number has slowly dropped to $31.5 million in 2020 to $24.5 million in 2022.

“You have to keep in mind there are 49 other states with congressional races and there are a lot more inviting prospects to tip a close election than any race in Minnesota right now,” Schier says.

The one exception this year might be Minnesota’s 2nd Congressional District featuring incumbent Democrat Angie Craig against Republican challenger Joe Teirab. As recently as 2022, there was $19 million in outside spending in that district, split evenly between Democratic and Republican interests; so far in 2024, just $23,000. On top of that, as of the last campaign finance reports in July, Craig had $4.1 million in cash compared to $535,000 for Teirab.

U.S. Speaker of the House Mike Johnson campaigned for Teirab in Minnesota in August, but Craig is the only one running TV ads so far. Schier says it might be hard for Teirab to catch up.

“Traditionally a challenger has to meet or come very close to what the incumbent is spending in order to win against an incumbent in a district like the Second District of Minnesota,” Schier says. “So far that’s not happening.”

Minnesota’s U.S. Senate race is also not expected to attract much outside spending. Plus, incumbent Democrat Amy Klobuchar has a commanding fundraising advantage, $6.6 million in cash-on-hand as of July compared to $53,000 for Republican Royce White. That’s a 124-1 fundraising advantage.