The presidential race in Minnesota seems to have settled into a single-digit lead for Democrat Kamala Harris in her race against Republican Donald Trump.

According to our latest KSTP/SurveyUSA poll, Harris leads 50% to 44%, with four percent undecided and two percent preferring another candidate. The margin of error, or “credibility interval,” is +/-4.3%. Our survey from August showed Harris leading 48% to 43%.

“The race looks stable compared to the last KSTP poll and Harris’ margin is pretty close to what Biden’s margin actually was in 2020,” says Carleton College political analyst Steven Schier. In our poll around this same time in 2020, Biden led by seven points and eventually won by seven. However, in 2016, Hilary Clinton also led Trump by seven points and she barely hung on to win Minnesota by less than two points. Trump went on to win the election.

“There may be Trump voters who are either not responding to surveys or not disclosing their preference and they may show up on Election Day and make this a tighter race,” Schier says.

One thing our survey seems to confirm is that the presidential debate in early September did not seem to have a major impact among “likely voters” we surveyed. Twenty-six percent say it did have a major impact on who they support, 21% said it had a minor impact and 50% said it had no impact.

“A lot of preferences between Trump and Harris were already pretty well set before the debate,” Schier says. “That really limited the effect of the debate.”

One other thing stands out in this poll. The gender gap has grown to its widest gulf since Harris entered the race. Harris now leads 59% to 35% among women, up six from last month, while Trump leads by 12 among men, up six from August. That 36-point gender gap compares to a 28-point gap in June when Joe Biden was the Democratic candidate.

“We have a gender canyon in this survey,” Schier says. “The difference in support between Harris and for Trump between men and women is really huge.”

Our survey included 42% Democrats, 36% Republicans and 19% independents.

SurveyUSA interviewed 800 adults from the state of Minnesota 09/23/24 through 09/26/24. Of the adults, 708 were identified as being registered to vote; of the registered voters, 646 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the November general election and were asked the substantive questions which follow. This research was conducted online, using nonprobability sample of online adult panelists chosen randomly by Lucid Holdings LLC of New Orleans. The combined pool of survey respondents was weighted to US Census ACS targets for gender, age, race, education, and home ownership.