KSTP/SurveyUSA poll: Hypothetical rematch between Biden, Trump is dead heat in Minnesota
A lot can happen in the nine months before Election Day in November, but for now, the hypothetical matchup between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump is too close to call either candidate a favorite.
According to our exclusive KSTP/SurveyUSA poll, Biden leads Trump by 3 points, 42% to 39%. Ten percent are undecided, and 9% say they prefer someone else. The survey of 1,594 registered voters likely to vote in November was conducted from Jan. 24-29.
Those results are in addition to poll results that show Trump with a commanding 76% to 14% lead over Nikki Haley in the Minnesota Republican primary on Super Tuesday, March 5.
Biden has nearly as big of a lead over Minnesota Congressman Dean Phillips in the Democratic primary, 70% to 9%. Phillips has not brought his presidential campaign to Minnesota.
“He’s been in New Hampshire and other states, and the DFL has been very, very cool to his candidacy, which makes it very difficult for him to gain traction in this state,” says Carleton College political analyst Steven Schier.
Biden has his own problems in Minnesota.
His approval rating in our survey is 41%, with 54% disapproving. Those are just modestly better numbers than he’s seeing nationally.
Schier says those are tough numbers for an incumbent seeking reelection.
“You have an incumbent president. It’s his fourth year, an election year. He is well known. People have often made up their minds about the incumbent, and Joe Biden is at 54% disapproval in Minnesota. That is not good news for him.”
However, both Biden and Trump face uncertain futures in the nine months until Election Day.
“If Trump gets convicted of a felony, that’s a huge problem for his candidacy,” Schier says. “On the other hand, Biden is facing a whole bunch of problems related to his age and the problems the nation is facing.”
SurveyUSA interviewed 2,100 total adults from the state of Minnesota. Of the adults, 1,853 were identified as being registered to vote; of the registered voters, 1,594 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely voters in the November general election. This research was conducted online, using a nonprobability sample of online adult panelists.
For the presidential race, the survey included 35% of respondents identifying themselves as Republicans, 38% as Democrats and 23% as independents.
View the survey results below: