Our monthly KSTP/SurveyUSA polling this year has indicated a very close presidential race in Minnesota from January through May, with President Joe Biden holding a narrow advantage from two to four points over former President Donald Trump.

Three weeks after Trump was found guilty of 34 felony charges in a New York City trial, Biden’s lead jumped to six points, 47% to 41%, with six percent preferring another candidate and seven percent undecided. In May, Biden had just a two-point lead, 44% to 42%.

“What we’re seeing in this survey is that independents and suburbanites are moving slightly in the Democratic direction compared to last month and it could well be the Trump trial is part of that trend,” says Carleton College political analyst Steven Schier.

Our poll conducted June 12-16 shows Biden with a five-point lead among independents, 38-33%, and a 10-point lead among suburban voters, 49% to 39%. Biden has a big lead in urban areas, 59% to 31%, but Trump dominates the vote in greater Minnesota, 52% to 32%.

Schier says he expected this race to tighten again in the coming months. “We’ll be able to tell if this trend is a lasting trend or simply a blip that disappears once the trial event that may have caused it becomes part of the rear view mirror,” he says, noting several potentially major events in the campaign still to come. “You’ve got the debate between the two presidential candidates next week. You’ve got the national conventions, you’ve got the Trump sentencing on July 11th. Many, many things are happening this summer that could shake up the race.”

Also adding to the volatility in the race is the fact a majority of poll respondents are not satisfied with the choice between Biden and Trump. Sixty percent say they’re not somewhat or very dissatisfied with the choice of candidates, with only 37% expressing some satisfaction.

“Just about every demographic group in the state does not like the choice between Biden and Trump and that adds a lot of volatility to the contest,” Schier says.

As for the Trump trial, 55% say they think he got a fair trial. Only 35% say the trial was unfair. The perception of the fairness of the trial divides along party lines, with 92% of Democrats saying it was fair and 72% of Republicans saying it was unfair. A majority of independents, 51%, also viewed the trial as fair.

Our poll included 41% of respondents identifying as Democrats, 36% Republicans and 20% independent.

SurveyUSA interviewed 800 adults from the state of Minnesota 06/12/24 through 06/16/24. Of the adults, 703 were identified as being registered to vote; of the registered voters, 626 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the November general election and were asked the substantive questions which follow.

This research was conducted online, using nonprobability sample of online adult panelists chosen randomly by Lucid Holdings LLC of New Orleans. The combined pool of survey respondents was weighted to US Census ACS targets for gender, age, race, education, and home ownership.