The battle for control of the Minnesota House of Representatives has been very close since we began our KSTP/SurveyUSA polling early this year, with either Democrats or Republicans leading by low single-digit margins. That all changed this month as Democrats open up a 10-point lead over Republicans.

When Minnesota “likely voters” were asked if they plan to vote for a Democrat or Republican in state House races, 50% say Democrat, 40% say Republican with 2% preferring another candidate and 7% undecided.

“This is good news for the DFL at least in this survey at this point in time,” says Carleton College political analyst Steven Schier, who cautions it might be influenced by a new wave of enthusiasm among Democrats after President Joe Biden dropped out of the presidential race and Vice President Kamala Harris emerged as his replacement. “The 10-point lead for Democrats in the state house races is a big shift from what we’ve seen before when it was a margin of error in previous surveys.”

Democrats led by 2 points in June while Republicans led by 2 points in May.

Among women, Democrats have a big lead of 58% to 32%, while Republicans have a smaller lead among men, 48% to 42%. Democrats have a single-digit lead among independents and a 17-point advantage in suburban areas. Republicans have a big lead in rural Minnesota.

“Independent and suburban voters are key in determining the direction of state politics and the control of the state House after this election and right now, at least in this survey, they’re trending definitely in a DFL direction,” Schier says.

In the U.S. Senate race, Democratic incumbent Sen. Amy Klobuchar seems well positioned to win an unprecedented fourth term in Minnesota. In a hypothetical matchup with Republican-endorsed candidate Royce White, Klobuchar leads by 22 points, 55% to 33%. White primary challenger Joe Fraser does one-point better, trailing 54% to 33%.

“These Republicans, White and Fraser, are simply unknown and because of that they’re getting about the same support from the electorate,” Schier says. “They have very little money and it’s a steep uphill climb for them.”

RELATED: KSTP/SurveyUSA poll: Klobuchar with double-digit leads over GOP candidates

White and Fraser will face off in a Senate primary on Aug. 13.

SurveyUSA interviewed 800 adults from the state of Minnesota July 23-25. Of the adults, 725 were identified as being registered to vote; of the registered voters, 626 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the November general election. In the poll, 42% identified themselves as Democrats, 37% as Republicans and 19% as independents.

This research was conducted online, using nonprobability sample of online adult panelists chosen randomly by Lucid Holdings LLC of New Orleans. The combined pool of survey respondents was weighted to U.S. Census ACS targets for gender, age, race, education and home ownership.

View the full survey results below: