In her three previous election victories in Minnesota’s 2^nd Congressional District, Democrat Angie Craig has not won by more than five points. However, in our new KSTP/SurveyUSA poll, she leads Republican challenger Joe Teirab by eight points, 49% to 41%, with three percent supporting an independent candidate who has since dropped out of the race and seven percent undecided.

The poll has a credibility interval, or margin of error, of +/- 5.4%.

“I think Angie Craig has a healthy, but not necessarily insurmountable lead in the Second District congressional race,” says Carleton College political analyst Steven Schier.

Craig won the district by just two points in 2020, 48% to 46%, and by five points in 2022, 51% to 46%. Both races against Republican Tyler Kistner. The district boundaries were redrawn in 2022 after the 2020 census, but it remains a mix of rural and suburban voters.

One struggle for Teirab is that he doesn’t have the formal endorsement of Second District Republicans. That might explain why he has 84% support from Republicans in our poll, while Craig has 94% support from Democrats.

Craig leads among most key demographic groups, including 52% to 39% among women and 46% to 42% among men. Independents favor her by a 53% to 32% margin.

Teirab has big leads among voters who cite immigration, taxes and inflation as key issues. Craig leads among voters who cite abortion, jobs and health care as the key issues.

Still, Schier says it could still be a competitive race because Craig is below 50%. “When you’re an incumbent and you’re polling under 50% close to an election, you’re always in a slightly nervous situation and that’s where Angie Craig finds herself,” Schier says.

One potential warning sign for Craig and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris is that Harris only leads Donald Trump in the Second District by two points, 47% to 45%.

“Which suggests, perhaps, a tight statewide race that really could be decided at the very last minute in Minnesota,” Schier says.

The poll included 37% Republicans, 36% Democrats and 22% independents in a district considered to be Minnesota’s most evenly split between Democrats and Republicans.

SurveyUSA interviewed 700 adults from Minnesota’s 2nd Congressional District 10/07/24 through 10/13/24. Of the adults, 622 were identified as being registered to vote; of the registered voters, 556 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the November general election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. 65% of likely voters were shown the survey questions on the display of their smartphone, laptop or tablet, using nonprobability sample of online adult panelists chosen randomly by Cint/Lucid Holdings LLC of New Orleans. The other 35% of likely voters were interviewed on their landline telephones in the recorded voice of a professional announcer, using probability-based telephone sample of registered voters purchased from Aristotle in Washington DC: The combined pool of survey respondents was weighted to US Census 2022 ACS targets for gender, age, race, education, and home ownership.