Assad’s downfall is a humbling blow to Russia. How will it affect Putin’s prestige?

Almost exactly seven years ago, President Vladimir Putin stood with Russian troops at their air base in Syria and proudly declared victory over “terrorists” in that country as part of the Kremlin’s military intervention to prop up the government of Bashar Assad amid a civil war.

This weekend, those hard-won gains seemed a distant memory. Assad hastily fled to Moscow as his power crumbled during a lightning offensive by rebels that his main international allies, Russia and Iran, were unable to stem.

The Kremlin’s failure to prevent Assad’s swift downfall has exposed limits of Russia’s power and dented its international clout at a pivotal stage of its war in Ukraine.

A look at Russia’s involvement in Syria and the possible consequences of Assad’s demise for Moscow:

What was Russia’s role in Syria and its civil war?

The Soviet Union was a longtime ally of Assad’s father, Hafez Assad, who ruled the country for nearly 30 years, and provided military advisers and aid.

After an 2011 uprising against Bashar Assad’s rule morphed into a civil war, Russia continued to be a key backer of Damascus, offering political support at the United Nations. When Assad’s rule neared collapse after a series of battlefield defeats in 2015, Russia joined Iran to intervene militarily.

Russia deployed warplanes to the Hemeimeem air base in Syria’s coastal province of Latakia, delivering thousands of tons of military equipment and supplies in an operation dubbed the “Syrian Express.” On Sept. 30, 2015, Moscow launched its air campaign.

Russia kept only about 50 warplanes at Hemeimeem, but they operated at a frenetic pace, each flying several sorties a day. Most of the Russian air force personnel were rotated through the base, giving them combat experience.

At the same time, Moscow expanded and upgraded its naval base in Tartus, the only such outpost outside the former USSR. It deployed special operations forces for critical ground missions and sent hundreds of military advisers to train Syrian troops and direct their operations. Mercenaries from Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Wagner Group military contractor also joined the battle.

The military intervention allowed Assad to reclaim control of most of Syria, making the Kremlin a key power broker in the Middle East and boosting Russia’s prestige. Putin’s triumphal visit to Hemeimeem on Dec. 11, 2017, came a week after Russia declared victory over the Islamic State group in Syria and shortly after he announced a reelection bid for 2018.

It was Russia’s first military operation outside the former Soviet Union since the USSR’s collapse in 1991 and gave Moscow a chance to test its latest weapons in combat. That military success emboldened Putin and was a key factor that contributed to his decision to invade Ukraine in 2022.

Why did Russia fail to keep Assad in power?

After helping Assad regain control over most Syria, Russia urged him to engage in talks with moderate opposition groups. Buoyed by opposition defeats, however, Assad staunchly resisted any initiatives aimed at national reconciliation.

“Trying to minimize its costs in Syria, Russia has increasingly focused on maintaining the shaky and inefficient status quo, preserving the crumbling and delegitimized Assad regime without any perspectives,” said Ruslan Pukhov, a Moscow-based military expert, in an analysis.

During recent contacts between Syrian and Turkish officials that Moscow helped broker this year, Assad’s government showed little interest in compromise -– a recalcitrance that paved the way for the offensive by Turkey-backed opposition groups that ousted Assad.

Syria’s economic woes, exacerbated by isolating international sanctions, weakened the country and its military. The demoralized Syrian army quickly crumbled under the brunt of the opposition offensive, a rapid meltdown that Tehran and Moscow couldn’t avert with the small contingents they had in Syria.

Russia dedicated the bulk of its assets to the war in Ukraine, while Iran, weakened by international sanctions and locked in a tense standoff with Israel, similarly lacked resources to help Assad.

Alexander Dugin, an ideologue linked to some hawkish Kremlin circles, called Assad’s demise as a painful blow to Russia.

“The Assad regime that we supported through enormous efforts collapsed in just a few days. It’s very sad,” Dugin said.

What happens to Russian assets in Syria?

With Assad’s demise, the future of Russia bases in Syria — its only military foothold outside the former Soviet Union — is in question.

The number of Russian warplanes at Hemeimeem air base has shrunk from several dozen to just a few, although it continues to be a key logistics point. Russian military cargo planes ferrying private contractors and supplies to Africa used it for refueling, and its loss would pose logistical problems for operations there.

“The importance of Syria for Russia’s operations in Africa has been invaluable,” Moscow-based Middle East expert Nikolai Sukhov said in televised comments.

The Tartus naval base is used by Russian warships for maintenance, refueling and replenishing supplies on visits to the Mediterranean. While opposition forces that eventually ousted Assad swept across Syria in late November, the Russian navy and air force held drills in the eastern Mediterranean, with Tartus as its operational center.

Even as Putin granted Assad and his family an asylum in Russia, Moscow reached out to the new Syrian authorities to try to ensure the security of its bases and to extend their stay. An opposition flag quickly was hoisted at the Syrian Embassy in Moscow.

Asked about the bases, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said it would be a topic for future discussions with the new authorities.

“For now, we are witnessing a period of transformation and extreme instability, so it will obviously take time and require a serious conversation with those who will have power,” he said.

Syria’s new leaders reportedly promised not to attack Russian military facilities.

Bronwen Maddox, director and chief executive at Chatham House, noted in a commentary that “whatever government emerges in Damascus is expected – for the moment -– to respect the deal that Assad struck granting Russia use of a military base on the Syrian coast.”

But she added that this “important asset is vulnerable,” and that risks Russia’s regional influence.

What does Assad’s demise mean for Russia?

Assad’s rapid downfall dealt a heavy blow to Putin at a time when he is preparing for a new U.S. administration and what that means for the war in Ukraine. President-elect Donald Trump has pledged to negotiate an end to the conflict.

Many observers note that the humiliating loss of Russia’s only ally in the Middle East has dented Kremlin prestige on the global stage and could weaken Putin’s hand in any negotiations on Ukraine.

“The key issue is how Moscow will now try to adapt to the new realities and whether it will have enough flexibility to deal with the new masters of Syria, who seem to be interested in avoiding conflict with Moscow for now,” Tatiana Stanovaya of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center wrote in a commentary.

There is also the possibility that Putin could take an even more uncompromising stance in negotiations to avoid looking weak.

“Assad’s collapse has also shaken Putin, making him less inclined to demonstrate flexibility with Ukraine,” Stanovaya added. “The war in Ukraine has, to some extent, cost him Syria, which reinforces his unwillingness to compromise.”

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