KSTP/SurveyUSA: Biden narrowly leading Minnesota in election’s home stretch

Minnesota voters haven’t favored a Republican presidential candidate since 1972 and, if that’s going to change in 2020, President Donald Trump will need to come from behind to win.

With less than a week until Election Day, former Vice President Joe Biden leads Trump by five points, 47% to 42%. Six percent of voters remain undecided and 5% prefer other candidates. The poll has a "credibility interval" (similar to a margin of error) of +/- 4.6%.

"It’s a five-point race but that’s within the margin of error for the poll so this is a very tight race," Carleton College political analyst Steven Schier told 5 EYEWITNESS NEWS after analyzing the results.

In our first poll in early September, Biden led Trump by nine points, 49% to 40%. Since then, Biden has dropped two points and Trump is up two.

Just like our previous polls, the numbers tell the tale of two Minnesotas. Biden has big leads in urban areas (58% to 30%) and in suburbs (51% to 40%), but Trump leads big in northern, western and southern Minnesota (59% to 30%).

"If there is a large rural turnout, then Trump has a chance to carry the state," Schier said. "He also has to be competitive in the suburbs and one problem for him in this survey is that he’s still trailing Joe Biden in suburban areas."

Biden also leads big among women, 52% to 39%, while Trump leads among men, 45% to 41%.

Both candidates also hold at least 90% support among their parties, Biden supported by 93% of Democrats and Trump by 90% of Republicans. Biden has a big lead among independents, 44% to 25%.

"Joe Biden’s been consistently ahead in KSTP/SurveyUSA surveys but not conclusively ahead, and the voters will tell us on Tuesday how close these polls have been to accurate," Schier said.

Our poll was conducted between Oct. 23 and 27 and is based on 649 "likely voters."

2020 Election Coverage from KSTP