Severe storms possible tonight across central and southern MN

Despite a dry Saturday daytime forecast for most of Minnesota and western Wisconsin, storm chances increase this evening and overnight. Severe scattered storms are possible for the Twin Cities mainly past 7 pm and before Midnight. The north and west metro likely sees storms before the east and south metro.

As I write this weather blog, dew points across western Minnesota are in the mid to low-70s, with potential energy for storms building to high levels across western Minnesota. This sets the stage for rapid and potentially violent storm development to occur, as the cold front across northern Minnesota enters a much more favorable environment for severe weather to develop.

I expect scattered severe storms to first develop across west-central Minnesota this evening. Once we see that development begin, storms will strengthen quickly and track south/southeastward into central Minnesota.

Damaging winds and large hail are the main threats for cental and southern Minnesota, including the Twin Cities and western Wisconsin. That being said, the hail threat is greater across the western half of Minnesota.

Downpours are likely with any storms that develop. While the risk for tornadoes is not the primary threat, a few tornadoes are possible. The risk for tornadoes looks higher west of I-35.

Since the severe storm threat continues past sunset, and past when a lot of people go to sleep, make sure you have your cell phone volume on so that you can receive weather alerts. Even better have your NOAA weather radio at your bedside.

Sunday is a mostly dry day, but isolated morning strong to severe storms are possible across southern Minnesota closer to the potentially stalled front. Sunday is muggy and partly cloudy with highs in the low-80s.

Monday is a washout with mostly cloudy skies, rain, storms, and cooler high temperatures in the low-70s. Much of central MN and western WI could grab 1″ to 3″ of rainfall Monday (which could cause localized flooding concerns).

Otherwise next week is a much cooler week, with high temperatures staying in the 70s.

Wren