Republicans need to flip at least four seats to take control of the Minnesota House, which has been controlled by Democrats since the 2018 elections.

Our final pre-election KSTP/SurveyUSA poll indicates they have a chance to do that, but they will have to overcome a slight Democratic advantage. According to our poll conducted Oct. 24-28, when likely voters were asked “Are you generally more inclined to vote for a Republican or Democrat in House races,” 48% say a Democrat, 43% say a Republican and seven percent are undecided. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 4%.

“We have about 15 really competitive state House districts and they could go either way,” says Carleton College political analyst Steven Schier.

Those competitive seats are all in the Twin Cities suburbs or in greater Minnesota. Democrats lead in urban areas like Minneapolis and St. Paul by a wide margin, 63% to 32%. The DFL advantage is much smaller in suburbs, where they lead 49% to 42%. Republicans have a big advantage in greater Minnesota with a 56% to 35% lead.

Schier says Republicans would have a better chance of taking control if they can overcome their suburban disadvantage. “In the state House races, Republicans in this survey are in real trouble in the suburbs. And they really have to do well in the suburbs if they have any hope of getting control of the state House.”

Otherwise, Schier says they would have to run the table in greater Minnesota. “One thing you can see is that Republicans are doing well” in rural areas, Schier says. “There are a few DFL seats at risk in greater Minnesota. And this survey suggests Republicans have a good chance at those seats.”

There is a gender gap that persists in House races. Democrats have a 12-point lead, 52% to 40%. Republicans lead 47% to 45% among male voters. Republicans also have a 45% to 36% lead among independents. All of those numbers are better than how Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump is performing at the top of the ticket.

The survey included 42% of respondents who self-identified as Democrats, 35% as Republicans and 19% independent.

SurveyUSA interviewed 900 adults from the state of Minnesota 10/24/24 through 10/28/24. Of the adults, 801 were identified as being registered to vote; of the registered voters, 728 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the November general election and were asked the substantive questions which follow. This research was conducted online, using nonprobability sample of online adult panelists chosen randomly by Lucid Holdings LLC of New Orleans. The combined pool of survey respondents was weighted to US Census ACS targets for gender, age, race, education, and home ownership, and to recalled 2020 presidential vote.