Democratic U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar appears poised to do what few Minnesota senators have done before her by winning a fourth consecutive term.

According to our exclusive new KSTP/SurveyUSA poll, Klobuchar leads Republican Royce White by 14 points, 50% to 36%, with 4% preferring another candidate and 11% undecided. In our last poll before the August primaries, Klobuchar had a 22-point lead over White.

“To break through, Royce White is going to have to find a way to do that without any money,” says Carleton College political analyst Steven Schier.

As of the last federal campaign finance reports in late July, White had raised $132,000 and had less than $53,000 cash on hand. Klobuchar has raised $18.6 million and still had $6.5 million in cash.

The poll also shows Klobuchar with 89% support among Democrats, while White has 79% support among Republicans. Klobuchar also leads by 12 among independents, 44% to 32%.

Schier says Klobuchar’s overall lead and White’s relative weakness among Republicans means her lead is likely insurmountable without a seismic shift in the race.

“The polls have not shown Royce White to be a serious threat so I doubt the Klobuchar campaign will spend considerable funds aimed at him,” Schier says.

Our latest poll also shows a potentially tighter race in the battle for control of the Minnesota House. When asked who likely voters are “generally more inclined to vote for” in the 2024 House elections, 48% said a Democrat, 43% said a Republican, with 8% undecided and 2% preferring a candidate of another party.

That 5-point lead is half the 10-point lead Democrats had in late July. That poll might have been influenced by excitement among Democrats over President Joe Biden dropping out of the presidential race and Kamala Harris becoming the nominee. Harris also had a 10-point lead in that poll that has also been cut in half to an identical 48% to 43%.

As for what issue likely voters view as the most important, 30% said the economy, 15% say abortion, followed by immigration at 14%, health care at 9% percent and taxes at 8%. Abortion has increased from 10% in June when it ranked third after the economy and immigration.

“The elevation of the abortion issue in the state is good news for Democrats and you see it particularly happening in the suburbs and with women,” Schier says. In the poll, 28% of Democrats cite abortion as the most important issue, compared to 6% of Republicans and 10% of independents.

Our survey included 40% who identified themselves as Democrats, 35% as Republicans and 22% as independents. SurveyUSA interviewed 800 adults from the state of Minnesota 08/27/24 through 08/29/24. Of the adults, 704 were identified as being registered to vote; of the registered voters, 635 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the November general election and were asked the substantive questions which follow. This research was conducted online, using nonprobability sample of online adult panelists chosen randomly by Lucid Holdings LLC of New Orleans. The combined pool of survey respondents was weighted to US Census ACS targets for gender, age, race, education, and home ownership.