The elections are still more than six months away but according to our new KSTP/SurveyUSA poll, Republicans have edged into a nominal lead in a generic race pitting Democrats against Republicans.

Republicans haven’t controlled the Minnesota House of Representatives since 2018 but might be in position to take back control and break up the DFL “trifecta” in the 2024 elections.

When likely voters were asked if they’re “generally more inclined to vote” for a Republican, Democrat or candidate from another party, 45% said they prefer Republicans, 44% prefer Democrats, 8% were undecided and 3% preferred another party.

“The Republicans have a chance to take control of the state House based on this poll,” says Carleton College political analyst Steven Schier. Schier says he bases that not just on the slim overall lead by Republicans, but a big shift in party preference in the suburbs and among independent voters.

Republicans lead by three points, 45% to 42% in the suburbs, and by eight points among independents, 39% to 27%. Last month, our poll showed Democrats with an eight-point lead among suburban voters, 47% to 39%, and they had a seven-point lead among independents, 33% to 26%.

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“Keep in mind that independents and suburbanites tend to drive the direction of state politics so as they move we may see a change in who can win the Legislature,” Schier says. Democrats continue to dominate among urban voters, 60% to 26%. Republicans still have a big lead among rural voters in greater Minnesota, 56% to 31%.

There is a big gender gap in the poll. Democrats lead by 14 points among females, 52% to 38%, while Republicans have a 15-point lead among men, 52% to 37%.

Our poll also includes new numbers in the U.S. Senate race, where Amy Klobuchar is seeking a fourth term. She leads Republican Joe Fraser 51% to 34%, a one-point increase in her lead from our poll a month ago.

The new poll includes 39% of “likely voters” who identify themselves as Democrats, 36% as Republicans and 22% independents. There’s a “credibility interval,” similar to a margin of error, of +/-4.9%.

SurveyUSA interviewed 825 adults from the state of Minnesota from April 3 through April 7, 2024. Of the adults, 721 were identified as being registered to vote; of the registered voters, 608 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the November general election and were asked the substantive questions that follow.

This research was conducted online, using nonprobability sample of online adult panelists chosen randomly by Lucid Holdings LLC of New Orleans. The combined pool of survey respondents was weighted to US Census CPS targets for gender, age, race, and education.

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