It wasn’t that long ago, in any given election year, Minnesota would have up to four of its eight congressional districts considered competitive races. After the 2024 elections, that number might have dwindled to zero.

All eight districts were won by double-digit margins ranging from 14 to 49 percentage points.

“Angie Craig’s victory in the Second District was a resounding victory and it’s probably going to scare off quality challengers and ensure a long House career for her,” says Carleton College political analyst Steven Schier of Democrat Angie Craig who won her third reelection bid by her widest margin yet since first winning the seat in 2018. She won 56% to 42% over Republican Joe Teirab after winning her previous races by five, two and five points.

Craig won by 14 points even though the Cook Political Report lists the Minnesota 2^nd District as only +1 for Democrats on its “partisan voting index.” In 2024, she outperformed Kamala Harris, who won the district 52% to 46% this year over President-elect Donald Trump.

The 2^nd District, covering parts of the southeast metro and southern Minnesota, is the only one in Minnesota considered “competitive” by the Cook Political Report. “When you look at the state of Minnesota now we are a very divided state,” Schier says. “The conservative areas are heavily Republican. The liberal areas are heavily Democratic. And so we have four-four House delegation and non-competitive districts.”

Republicans control the four congressional seats located mostly in rural and fringe metro areas. Democrats control the four districts in urban and suburban areas.

The victory margins for incumbents in Minnesota were remarkable, Republican Brad Finstad was +18 in the 1^st District; Craig +14 in the 2^nd; Democrat Betty McCollum +34 in the 4^th; Democrat Ilhan Omar +49 in the 5^th; Republican Tom Emmer +26 in the 6^th; Republican Michelle Fischbach +41 in the 7^th and Republican Pete Stauber +16 in the 8^th. Democrat Kelly Morrison won the open seat in the 3^rd District by 17 points.

The current House members range in age from 42 to 70 and none appear to be going anywhere soon.

“What you’re looking at are long careers for the U.S. House incumbents because they’re not that old and they have very safe districts and they are essentially probably able to stay in the U.S. House as long as they want to,” says Schier.

As recently as 2018, Minnesota had four competitive congressional races. Spending on those races by outside special interests totaled $46 million in 2018. In 2024, the total was down to $3.3 million.

Minnesota is not alone in this non-competitive climate. The Cook Political Report this year listed only 42 of 435 congressional races across the country as “toss-ups” or “leaning” to one party or the other. The rest were considered likely or solidly going to one of the two parties.