Clock is already ticking on 2024 election year
The 2023 “odd year” election is almost behind us with the usual lackluster voter turnout in most places. So, it’s time to brace yourself for what could be a blockbuster 2024 presidential election year.
“You have many people who have a casual interest in politics who will actually turn out and vote in the presidential race,” said Carleton College political analyst Steven Schier.
Even with two highly unpopular potential candidates President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, turnout is likely to exceed 70%.
“A lot of people will be voting against a candidate rather than for a candidate and that could bring out a significant number of voters,” Schier said.
In 2020, Minnesota’s voter turnout was 79.96% in the first Biden vs. Trump election — the second highest voter turnout in state history after 83.15% in 1956.
The presidential race won’t be the only reason voters will show up to the polls. U.S. Senator Amy Klobuchar will be running for her fourth term in the U.S. Senate. Plus, all eight U.S. House seats will be on the ballot. In addition, all 134 Minnesota state House seats will be up for grabs, giving Republicans a chance to grab back a share of power in state government.
“We’ve already seen after 2022 that when one party gets control, the direction of the state can change in a very marked way,” Schier said of record spending and several tax increases approved by Democratic majorities in the House and Senate. The Senate is not up for re-election next year. “The 2024 election shapes up as a referendum on the Democratic Party because it’s likely an incumbent Democratic president will be running again…and then incumbent Democrats in the state House are running again and so a referendum is a real possibility.”
Even before we get to the general elections, Minnesota could have two contested primaries in congressional races, with both 3rd District Congressman Dean Phillips facing a primary and 5th District Congresswoman Ilhan Omar already facing two primary challengers. Phillips could still run for Congress if he eventually suspends his presidential campaign.