Why AP called Arizona for Trump

By MIKE CATALINI and ROBERT YOON The Associated Press

Voters arrive to a polling station on the Navajo Nation in Fort Defiance, Ariz., on Election Day, Tuesday, Nov. 5, 2024. (AP Photo/Andres Leighton)[ASSOCIATED PRESS/Andres Leighton]

WASHINGTON (AP) — The Associated Press declared President-elect Donald Trump the winner in Arizona on Saturday night after vote updates in Maricopa and other counties added to his overall lead, putting the state out of reach for Vice President Kamala Harris.

At the time the AP called the race at 9:21 p.m. ET, Trump led Harris, 52.6% to 46.4%, a margin of about 185,000 votes. Harris needed to win about seven out of every ten votes of the roughly 443,000 uncounted ballots remaining, a percentage that has steadily grown as additional votes were counted.

Trump has now swept all seven of the hotly contested presidential battlegrounds, winning 312 electoral votes, compared to 226 for Harris. The number needed to clinch the presidency is 270.

In 2020, President Joe Biden carried the state narrowly over Trump, but he won Maricopa County by a margin of 50 percentage points to 48. On Saturday, Trump was leading Harris 52 to 47.

The AP only declares a winner once it can determine that a trailing candidate can’t close the gap and overtake the vote leader.

Here’s a look at how the AP called this race:

CANDIDATES: President: Harris (D) vs. Trump (R) vs. Chase Oliver (Libertarian) vs. Jill Stein (Green).

WINNER: Trump.

POLL CLOSING TIME: 9 p.m. ET Tuesday. Arizona does not release votes until all precincts have reported or one hour after all polls are closed, whichever is first, usually 10 p.m. ET.

ABOUT THE RACE: Both Harris and Trump crisscrossed this border state, where immigration is a prominent issue, multiple times before Election Day.

Trump put immigration at the center of his candidacy, promising to deport people without legal documentation while Harris called for pathways to citizenship as well as tighter security at the border.

Independent voters are the largest bloc in the state, followed by Republicans then Democrats, who have succeeded in winning Senate contests and the governorship since 2018.

Biden became just the second Democrat to win the state in more than 70 years.

Both candidates made a play for vote-rich Maricopa County, which is home to Phoenix, Mesa and Tempe. Trump carried the county by 3 points in 2016, while Biden won with a 2-point margin four years later. Arizona is primarily an early voting state. In 2016, just over three-quarters of the votes were cast early. In 2020, that climbed to nearly 90%.

WHY AP CALLED THE RACE:

In statewide elections going back a dozen years, Democrats have always carried four counties in both winning and losing campaigns: Apache, Coconino, Pima and Santa Cruz.

Harris had large leads over Trump in all four counties, but she far underperformed Biden’s showing from 2020.

She was trailing Trump in decisive Maricopa County, which Biden won in 2020 and has been a must-win county for statewide Democratic candidates in recent elections.

Although Harris very briefly led in the statewide vote count on election night, Trump has consistently led since then.

The AP’s analysis of Arizona’s voting history and political demographics at the county level showed there was no scenario that would allow Harris to close the gap. The analysis also showed that even if remaining updates showed vote swings in Harris’ favor, they would not be enough to give her the lead.

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Learn more about how and why the AP declares winners in U.S. elections at Explaining Election 2024, a series from The Associated Press aimed at helping make sense of the American democracy. The AP receives support from several private foundations to enhance its explanatory coverage of elections and democracy. See more about AP’s democracy initiative here. The AP is solely responsible for all content.