‘Outside’ spending on Minnesota political campaigns down dramatically

Over the past ten years, more than $100 million has been spent by special interest groups outside Minnesota trying to influence the state’s U.S. Senate and House races. The spending peaked at $45.8 million in 2018, including $14 million in the First Congressional District race between Republican Jim Hagedorn and Democrat Dan Feehan. With just a month to go before Election Day, outside spending is way down in Minnesota and nationally.

"Democrats are very likely to maintain their majority in the U.S. House and that means less money goes into competitive races," Carleton College political analyst Steven Schier said after analyzing the numbers.

Democrats have a comfortable 34-seat margin over Republicans in the House and there are not enough competitive races where that’s likely to change much. That would explain why outside interests have only spent $242.1 million in House races compared to $690.6 million in 2018. With only a month to go before the elections, that gap isn’t likely to be erased.

Minnesota House races illustrate the difference between 2018 and 2020.

In the First Congressional District, spending stands at just $1.2 million compared to $14 million two years ago. Outside spending in the Second Congressional District has dropped from $8.7 million to $41,764. In the Third Congressional District, spending is down from $9.8 million to $71,440. But the biggest drop is in the Eighth Congressional District, where zero dollars have been spent after groups spent $9.8 million in 2018.

Even spending in what was expected to be Minnesota’s most competitive House race isn’t what many expected. The Seventh Congressional District race between Democrat Collin Peterson and Republican Michelle Fischbach has attracted $2.5 million. That’s a big jump from just $60,293 spent in 2018, but still well below the amount usually spent in a highly competitive race.

Outside spending is also down in Minnesota’s one U.S. Senate race between Democrat Tina Smith and Republican Jason Lewis. Just $1.2 million has been spent compared to $3.3 million in 2018 when Smith faced Republican Karin Housley.

But overall, spending on U.S. Senate races is likely to exceed last year’s total. In 2020, special interests have spent $546 million trying to influence Senate races, compared to $690.7 million in 2018. A big influx of spending in the last month of the Senate races is likely as Republicans try to hang on to a slim majority.

"There are probably eight toss-up races and the money nationally is flowing into all of them," Schier says, noting that a Senate race in Iowa has already attracted $76 million— ten times more than all the congressional races in Minnesota combined.