KSTP/SurveyUSA: Biden leading in Minnesota, but race tightens

Former Vice President Joe Biden remains in the lead to capture Minnesota’s 10 electoral votes by a margin of 47% to 40%, according to our new KSTP/SurveyUSA poll conducted after the first debate and the president’s diagnosis with COVID-19.

The poll also shows 10% are undecided and 3% favor other candidates. The poll includes 929 "likely" voters across the state.

The margin in favor of Biden is two points smaller than KSTP’s poll a month ago, when he led Trump 49% to 40%.

"The fact the president may have improved his standing slightly in Minnesota is remarkable," said Carleton College political analyst Steven Schier, citing the drumbeat of criticism Trump faces. "It does show I think how stable the base of Trump support is in this state. The challenge for the president is to build beyond that."

The president’s biggest challenge is a huge gender gap. Biden leads 51% to 34% among women while Trump leads by a much smaller margin among men, 46% to 42%. Schier said Trump has to try to at least cut into that margin.

"I think what he has to do is look to the suburbs and greater Minnesota to try to persuade women there because women in the central cities of Minneapolis and St. Paul are simply beyond his reach," Schier said.

Biden leads in Minneapolis and St. Paul, southern Minnesota and the suburbs. Trump leads in western and northeastern Minnesota and in rural areas.

Our poll shows Minnesotans trust Trump slightly more on handling the economy, 47% to 45%. Voters trust Biden more to keep them safe, 50% to 42%.

The president’s approval rating on handling the coronavirus pandemic is 38%, with 44% disapproving.

In one other finding, 16% of those surveyed in Minnesota said they’ve already cast their votes.

Click here to see the full results.