A recently released report says a regionwide electric grid, including Minnesota, is at “high risk” of power shortages over the next decade.

As the need for energy supply grows and traditional plants close amid the state’s planned transition to 100% carbon-free electricity by 2040, Minnesota is among several states at risk of not having enough electricity to meet demand within five years, according to the annual Long-Term Reliability Assessment from the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC).

The Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO), the organization responsible for reliable power transmission across Minnesota and all or part of 14 other states and Manitoba, operates the grid in the lone area listed as “high risk” in the 2024 report.

“I think it’s a warning that we need to take seriously, that we need to slow down the shutdown of existing units and make sure that the power grid is reliable well into the future,” reacted Minnesota Rural Electric Association (MREA) President and CEO Darrick Moe.

As Moe alluded, the NERC report noted that the creation of renewable energy in the region “is insufficient” to make up for the recent retirement of traditional coal plants, and it projects a “sharp decline in anticipated resources beginning next summer.”

“High-risk areas are likely to experience a shortfall in electricity supplies at the peak of an average summer or winter season,” the report said, adding that, “unusual heat waves or deep-freeze events pose an even greater threat to reliability.”

“As we sit here today, new wind and solar power are a total of 14% of the electricity being generated,” Moe said. “So in 15 years, we have to make up for a lot of generation, and we have a policy that says you can’t build new nuclear plants.”

Moe said MREA is pushing for an end to the state’s nuclear moratorium as another possible mitigation.

David Sapper, the Vice President of Transmission and Markets with the Clean Grid Alliance, said the “high-risk” finding was nothing new, and he was not particularly concerned with the latest assessment.

“No, because, like I said, the state regulators have the job of ensuring resource adequacy, and they are very active in that regard,” Sapper said.

“We’ve known for a few years now that the capacity margin has been shrinking … and these forward projections are just that. And, actual supply plans are being firmed up, you know, as we speak and into the future.”

Expanding on his interview statements in a later email, Sapper added, “There are enough shovel-ready wind, solar, and storage projects to meet near-term supply needs for the MISO region. For the most part, they just need some transmission upgrades and more commercial interest from regulated utilities.” 

Moe does not project outages in the short term either, but he expressed worry about the reliability of the electric grid and its possible impact on Minnesotans’ wallets in the future.

“This is about preparing for the long term so the impacts can be avoided,” he said. “But yes, we are worried about affordability over the next several years as we adapt to these industry changes.”