Wednesday evening forecast

Here’s your Wednesday evening forecast for March 29, 2023 from KSTP Meteorologist Matt Serwe.

A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for parts of north-central and northeastern Minnesota Thursday evening through Friday morning.

A Winter Storm Watch is in effect for parts of western, central, and eastern Minnesota, as well as western Wisconsin Friday evening through early Saturday morning.

Enjoy the quiet—and very cold—weather Wednesday night. The forecast get pretty complicated over the next few days. The clear sky early tonight will let some lows drop near and below zero in central and northern Minnesota. Clouds will keep the southern half of the state in the teens and 20s.

Some light freezing drizzle is possible in western Minnesota Thursday morning. There could be some isolated slippery spots around Redwood Falls, Willmar, and Morris. As more moisture comes in through the afternoon, this will become a clean rain/snow split across the state. Widespread cold rain is likely from the Twin Cities to the south in the afternoon and evening, while light to steady snow is likely from St. Cloud to the north. 3 to 5 inches of snow is possible from St. Cloud through Brainerd and Duluth Thursday night into early Friday.

Rain and thunderstorms are possible in the southern half of the state Thursday night. Locally heavy rain is possible, and some storms could produce some small hail. Severe weather is unlikely in the Twin Cities, but there could be an isolated severe storm closer to the I-90 corridor. Another round of isolated severe weather is possible closer to the Iowa border Friday afternoon. That will depend on how far north a cold front can move during the day.

A small break from any precipitation is possible around midday Friday. Round two begins Friday afternoon. More rain is likely in the Twin Cities after 2:00 PM, and snow develops in parts of western Minnesota. As cold air wraps in Friday evening, the rain changes over to snow from west to east. Several hours of steady to heavy snow are possible Friday night as temperatures drop into the mid and upper 20s. That means the snow will stick. In addition to the snow, wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph are possible, causing whiteout conditions, and scattered power outages with this wet snow.

Give forecasters a little grace over the next couple of days, because this is an extremely difficult snow forecast. There are three things that will change snow totals: Warm, wet ground, the speed of the rain to snow transition, and how heavy the snow falls through the night. As of now, a widespread area of 3 to 6 inches of snow is possible from Morris to Faribault to the north, and from Alexandria to Grantsburg to the south. This is most of central Minnesota, including the Twin Cities metro.

However, inside that 3 to 6 inch swath, there will likely be a narrow band of heavier snow that develops Friday night. Where that will be, and how much snow it produces, will become clearer Thursday into Friday morning. Pay close attention to the forecast over the next couple of days so you are prepared!

The snow is done by sunrise Saturday, and the weekend starts with chilly highs in the upper 30s. A warm front moves in Sunday, possibly with an isolated rain or snow shower in the morning. By the afternoon, we likely get our first 50° day in the Twin Cities this season! Much of the new snow will melt in those temperatures. We follow that up with another day in the upper 40s and low 50s Monday.

By the middle of next week, another strong system could bring more rain, storms, and accumulating snow to Minnesota and Wisconsin Tuesday into Wednesday. At least it gets out before the Twins home opener, right?