Projections Show Most Minnesota Congressional Races Up For Grabs

August 20, 2018 10:20 PM

The FiveThirtyEight, which partners with ABC News, recently released their Election 2018 forecast for the US House, which shows a majority of Minnesota’s Congressional Districts are competitive.

"Minnesota certainly for its size, has a ridiculously disproportionate number of competitive seats," said Nathaniel Rakich, FiveThirtyEight Election Analyst. “I don't know of any other state that has half of its districts, fully half of its districts competitive."


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The FiveThirtyEight offers users three different options for viewing the projections from a lite version with only polling data, or options with fundraising, and a more in-depth model that includes projections from other non-partisan election analysts.

FiveThirtyEight Classic View of Minnesota’s House Races: (as of Aug. 20, 2018.)

1st District: TOSS-UP
2nd District: Likely Democratic, Angie Craig a 3-in-4 chance of winning.
3rd District: Leaning Democratic, Erik Paulsen a 3-in-8 chance of winning.
4th District: Solid Democratic.
5th District: Solid Democratic.
6th District: Solid Republican.
7th District: Likely Democratic; The current congressman is a Democrat.
8th District: Leaning Republican; Gives GOP 2-in-3 chance of winning.

"I think this far out there will be a lot of skepticism," said Carleton College Political Science Professor Steven Shier of any projections after pollsters results in the 2016 Presidential Election.

But Schier says House races can be very tricky to call because not a lot of independent polling data is collected around the country.

The 3rd District House Race data from FiveThirtyEight, in the west Metro, surprised Schier.

"It would definitely be the third, when they have Erik Paulsen who won by 14 points [in 2016], likely to lose his seat, that really surprised me," Schier said.

RELATED: District Races

The FiveThirtyEight updates forecasts daily, but staffs said don’t expect the national attention coming to Minnesota to change.

"There are going to be a lot of campaign ads, a lot of campaign activity, for sure, I'm kind of jealous of you guys," Rakich said.

The FiveThirtyEight said an important take away from the data is that relatively small shifts could allow Republicans to keep control of the House, or it could turn a blue wave into a tsunami.

"We've got a 75 percent chance of a Democratic takeover in the house according to our numbers,” said Rakich. However, he admitted the races are far from over. “People have to understand it's not an exact science."
To learn more about The FiveThirtyEight methodology, click here.


Eric Chaloux

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