October 24, 2018 03:17 PM
With two weeks to go until Election Day, Democrat Dan Feehan has a razor-thin lead over Republican Jim Hagedorn in Minnesota's 1st Congressional District. According to our KSTP/SurveyUSA poll, Feehan leads Hagedorn 47 percent to 45 percent. The two-point margin is well within the poll's margin of error of +-4.4 percent.
"I think this is wide open, it's a toss-up. It could go either way," says Steven Schier of Carleton College. "Turnout is really going to dictate it and it's hard to predict turnout."
Feehan's small lead might be entirely attributable to a gender gap in the poll. Feehan leads 53 percent to 38 percent among women, a 15-point lead, while Hagedorn has a significant, but slightly smaller lead among men, 52 percent to 41 percent.
Just like in every other poll KSTP has conducted this fall, health care is the most important issue to a plurality of voters. In our 1st District poll, 30 percent cite health care as the most important issue, followed by the presidency at 13 percent, jobs and the economy at 12 percent, taxes at 11 percent and immigration at 10 percent.
"We see momentum," Feehan told 5 EYEWITNESS NEWS, as he noted he has a big lead among "likely voters" who consider health care the top issue. "We see enthusiasm on the ground, but I don't take it for granted at all."
Hagedorn could be helped by President Trump, who won the 1st District by double-digits in 2016. Trump has a 46 percent approval rating in the district, just below the 49 percent approval rating of Congressman Tim Walz, who is running for governor. Trump's rating in the district is several points higher than his statewide average.
The poll was conducted Oct. 16 to 20 and includes 586 "likely voters," or people who have already voted. It includes 37 percent Republicans, 31 percent Democrats and 30 percent Independents.
Updated: October 24, 2018 03:17 PM
Created: October 23, 2018 06:28 PM
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