The only thing the Minnesota Legislature is required to do is pass a balanced budget this session. That was always going to be a difficult task, but it’s been made more difficult by a fluctuating headcount in the Minnesota House and now a worsening budget forecast.

The Minnesota Management and Budget office announced Thursday the state has a projected surplus of $456 million for 2026-27, $160 million less than forecast in November. In 2028-29, there’s a projected deficit of just under $6 billion, about $900 million more than the previous forecast.

“We should be clear, the budget we passed [in 2023] is going to end with a significant surplus,” says Rep. Zack Stephenson, DFL-Coon Rapids. “We have a historically full rainy day fund of $3.5 billion dollars. We have a perfect bond rating with all the bond agencies. Which is good because the storm that’s coming from Washington in the form of Donald Trump and Elon Musk is going to hit our state really hard.”

Republicans counter that a huge increase in spending in the last budget will carry forward into the future.

“I understand that the Democrats have a Trump-deflection strategy to take away from the results of what has been a huge expansion of government spending that is crushing our state — it’s crushing our state’s fiscal position,” says House Majority Leader Harry Niska, R-Ramsey. “From an $18 billion surplus to a $6 billion deficit in just a few short years, that’s a huge problem.”

Stephenson and Niska will appear on “At Issue with Tom Hauser” Sunday morning at 10 a.m.

The two House leaders also acknowledge there will be challenges and opportunities when the chamber likely returns to a 67-67 tie after a special election Tuesday in a heavily DFL-leaning district.

“I’m hopeful we can get done on time,” Stephenson says of a May 19 session deadline. “I’m actually hopeful there’s a case to be made that 67-67 in the House is going to require compromise much earlier in the budget process than what we’re used to, and if we could achieve that, it could set the tone for the end of session.”

Niska is also hoping the two sides can find agreement but isn’t quite as confident as Stephenson.

“Hopefully, there are going to be some policy areas where you’re going to see some agreement across the aisle, but fundamentally, the first priority has to be passing a budget, and that is going to require us to work together.”

If a budget deal isn’t reached by May 19, the next deadline is June 30, when the state’s fiscal year ends.