The ink wasn’t even dry on a budget deal reached between Gov. Tim Walz and legislative leaders when rank-and-file Democratic lawmakers were banging on the governor’s door in protest.

They were upset about a portion of the agreement that would phase out adult undocumented immigrants from the state’s health insurance program, MinnesotaCare.

“We hate it,” DFL House Speaker Emerita Melissa Hortman said last week before a meeting in the governor’s office. “It’s a cold-hearted, partisan, ideological stand that is not required to settle a budget. But that is the condition that has been demanded by the House GOP.”

Republican House Speaker Lisa Demuth and other members of her caucus say the cost of the program will spiral out of control. “It is unaffordable,” Demuth said last month on the last day of the regular legislative session, adding that she doesn’t think it will be a dealbreaker despite so much DFL opposition. “It’s not a dealbreaker for Republicans and most of the state of Minnesota.”

Here are the facts on the cost of the program as they stand now. The Minnesota Department of Human Services (DHS) says as of April 24, 20,187 undocumented immigrants had enrolled in the program since they were first eligible Jan. 1, 2025. So far, there have been 4,306 claims costing about $3.9 million.

According to a statement from DHS on Tuesday, “The February 2025 forecast projected expenditures of $3 million in the first three months of calendar year 2025. Actual expenditures were $3.3 million. Based on the first three months of enrollment, actual spending is in line with the February forecast, which also projected expenditures of approximately $200 million in FY 2025-28. To this point, there is no evidence to suggest expenditures will be significantly higher going forward. However, three months of data are not adequate to reliably predict expenditures for the next four years. Several additional months of actual expenditure data for this population will be available for the November 2025 forecast.”

Republicans say, based on triple the anticipated number of enrollees, they also expect the cost to triple to around $600 million. It will take several more months of data to determine who is right.

While we haven’t heard much publicly recently about where this issue stands in the closed-door negotiations, DFL lawmakers vowed to fight to maintain this coverage for all undocumented immigrants, not just children, as per the agreement. They say these people will still need health care, but will get it in emergency rooms, where taxpayers will also have to pick up the tab at a higher cost.

About 75% of the undocumented immigrants enrolled in MinnesotaCare are adults.

“There is no fiscal, there is no economic argument to be made when we take away people’s health care,” Sen. Alice Mann, DFL-Edina, said last month. “So, what they did was purely cruel. Cruelty dressed as fiscal responsibility.”

Republicans strongly disagree. 

“This is yet another instance of misplaced priorities, and with a mammoth budget deficit coming up, it’s time for lawmakers to start using some common sense when it comes to funding statewide needs,” Rep. Paul Torkelson, R-Hanska, said in April as this legislation started making its way through the Minnesota House.