The 2025 Minnesota Legislature got off to a slow start with a nearly month-long boycott by DFL House members in a power-sharing dispute with Republicans.

That slow start will have to result in a rapid-fire finish if lawmakers are going to finish work on the budget by the May 19 deadline. So far, they’ve only passed four bills in three months.

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“It’s not a surprise, really, because you have a House that’s tied and it’s tied between two parties with very different and contrasting agendas,” says Carleton College political analyst Steven Schier.

By contrast, in the previous budget year, 2023, 26 bills had passed by mid-April under one-party control by Democrats, including legislation to provide free school meals to all Minnesota students, abortion rights legislation, and a bill establishing a new “Juneteenth” state holiday, among others.

“Democrats had (control of) both the House and Senate, they had agreement on an agenda, and they passed a wide variety of very large-scale measures,” Schier says.

Democrats have also faced criticism for spending a nearly $18 billion surplus in 2023 while also raising taxes. The state still has a small short-term budget surplus, but is now projecting a $6 billion deficit in 2028-29.

When lawmakers return to work after the Easter/Passover break next week, they’ll have 28 days left to craft a nearly $70 billion two-year budget for 2026-27. At this point, none of the budget bills are in conference committees where compromises will be worked out between the House and Senate.

Still, legislative leaders and the governor have repeatedly said they are optimistic that they can reach a budget agreement by the deadline.

Schier says history suggests otherwise.

“Despite the happy talk by legislative leaders, it’s pretty likely that we’ll have a special session this summer,” he says.

Since 2015 every legislative session where there has been divided government a special session has resulted.