Forecast First ALERT: Level 4 out of 5 risk for severe weather on Monday – Chris

By KSTP

Good Saturday morning! Today will be calm and bright with lighter winds. Sunshine will be plentiful, and highs will climb into the mid 60s. Today is hands down the pick day of the weekend if you have outdoor plans!

Sunday looks a bit more unsettled. We’ll likely see showers and storms during the morning, followed by a break in the afternoon where things turn mostly dry. However, another round of storms is expected Sunday night, and some of those could be strong.

Now, let’s talk about Monday. This remains a day you need to be paying close attention to.
The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded much of the severe risk across Minnesota, including the Twin Cities Metro. As of now, there is Moderate Risk (Level 4 out of 5) for severe weather from the Twin Cities, to Mankato and Albert Lea, over to Owatonna, Rochester, and Western Wisconsin. There is an Enhanced Risk (Level 3 out of 5) across nearly all of Minnesota from Worthington to Bemidji and International Falls and eastward. A Slight Risk (Level 2 out of 5) exists for far Western Minnesota. nder a rare Enhanced Risk for severe weather four days out. That’s something we don’t see often, and it signals significant confidence that severe storms are likely.

Here’s the current thinking:

  • Monday morning: A round of storms is possible early in the day. Large hail would be the biggest concern during this first round.
  • Midday: A break or lull in activity could allow the atmosphere to heat up and destabilize even more.
  • Monday evening: Another, stronger round of storms could develop. This is when the risk for damaging winds, very large hail, and tornadoes—including the possibility of strong or intense tornadoes—will be highest.

Minnesota’s Weather Authority has issued a Forecast First Alert for Monday to give you as much advance notice as possible.
Use this weekend to review your severe weather safety plans, double-check your weather alerts on your phone, and make sure you know where your safe place is in case a warning is issued. This setup is serious, and being prepared ahead of time could make all the difference.

Enjoy the beautiful Saturday ahead—but stay weather-aware and plan ahead for what could be a very active Monday.
– Meteorologist Chris Reece