After weeks of expressing optimism about finishing their job of balancing the budget by May 19, reality started to settle in at the Minnesota State Capitol on Wednesday. 

“I think at this point it is really difficult to get done and do the work in the way we need to, so yes, I think a special session is very, very likely if not inevitable,” DFL Senate Majority Leader Erin Murphy said Wednesday on the way into a budget meeting with other lawmakers and Gov. Tim Walz. 

Murphy says time has simply run out to get budget bills processed and passed off the House and Senate floors with just five days to go until the Monday deadline. “It is important for us to recognize that we do our best work if we get some sleep,” she told reporters. “And we need to do good work for the people of Minnesota. And I think that is more important than finishing at midnight on the 19th of May.”

Republican House Speaker Lisa Demuth remained optimistic about reaching a deal but declined to predict whether they can finish the budget by Monday. “I feel like we’re going back in for more conversations, and we’re talking and it’s good,” she said on the way into the governor’s office.

Meanwhile, the Minnesota Senate passed a health and human services bill on a party-line vote, with all Democrats voting in favor and all Republicans against. 

“The Health and Human Services Budget passed by the Senate today preserves health care for Minnesotans at the very same time Donald Trump and Republicans in Congress are trying hard to take it away from families across our state,” said Majority Leader Murphy. “Our bill will keep Minnesotans healthy, bring down costs, and prevent fraud. We will continue our urgent work to ensure that the uncertainty and chaos coming from Republicans in Washington, D.C., doesn’t harm people and families in our state.”

Republicans oppose an increase in the health care provider tax from 1.8% to 2%, which Republicans say will be passed on to patients. Republicans also attempted to amend the bill to include a ban on illegal immigrants from accessing state health care programs, one of the issues that is holding up an overall budget agreement.

“Under this bill, health care costs are going to skyrocket for every single family in our state,” said Sen. Paul Utke (R-Park Rapids). “Health care should be affordable, reliable, and accessible, but this bill increases costs, tacks additional mandates onto facilities that cannot afford them, and will lead to less access alongside a decreasing quality of care.” 

With so many obstacles to a final budget agreement, the May 19 session deadline is no longer the only date we’re watching. If there isn’t an agreement and budget bills aren’t passed by June 1, layoff notices and other government shutdown preparations could begin.

If there is no agreement by June 30, state funding for any programs not passed into law would stop on July 1, when portions of the state government could shut down. That last happened in 2011.