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Created: 03/05/2009 4:10 PM KSTP.com |
It's definitely time to start thinking about preparing for the worst if you have friends or relatives in the Red River Valley of the North.
As a comparison, this winter has already had snowfall totals over 300 percent of their normal values, with water content in that snow pack well over the normal values as well. The stage is already set for major spring flooding in the area, but there are a few things that can help prevent a tragic outcome. If the snowmelt is slow, with daytime high temperatures above the thawing point and overnight lows below the freezing point, runoff will be at a minimum. Another helpful turn of events would be less than normal spring snow and rainfall. Minor flooding is almost a certainty, and moderate to major flooding is at least at an 80 percent likelihood by the middle of April. The forecast doesn't look good for the Upper Midwest. It looks like rain and snowfall will be above normal over the next 4 weeks for most of Minnesota and North and South Dakota. The jet stream is expected to become more active with time, creating at least a couple major snowstorms for the area, and possibly some significant rain as well. As far as the thaw is concerned, that might be our saving grace, with only a slow warming trend expected by the end of March and the beginning of April. For those of us around the Minnesota, Mississippi, and St. Croix Rivers, we should be on alert as well, because there's a slight chance these rivers could exceed their banks this spring as well.
Have a great day! Meteorologist Dave Dahl |
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Print Story
We don't have to think too far back to remember one of the worst floods in history along the Red River of the North. The winter of 1996-97 was one of the worst in the area's recent memory. Snowfall amounts for that winter were about 300 percent of the normal. About 117 inches of snow fell in Fargo and 96 inches in Grand Forks. The thaw began in late March but the river's flow was inhibited by a major blizzard on April 5th and 6th. Nearly 2 feet of snow covered the area with a severe drop in temperatures. Ice jams caused the highest levels in history at Wahpeton North Dakota of 19. 42 feet, which was 1.47 feet higher than the record set 8 years earlier in 1989. The record level at Fargo was set on April 18th at 39.72 feet, which exceeded a record set 100 years earlier.