Updated: 06/15/2007 1:20 PM KSTP.com | Print Story
By: Rob Koch

Long Range Forecast June 16th to June 23rd

Ever since I looked at my first weather chart in college at the University of Kansas back in 1991 I've always been extremely interested in the extended forecast maps more than the short term. The words short term in the forecast biz refer to the next 12 to 48 hours. Long term can refer to anything beyond 72 hours out to as far out as 384 hours. Sure the accuracy in long range forecasting is minimal, but it certainly does indicated a trend that often ends up being; well somewhat accurate. If I told you today that the high temperature a week from now was going to be 80 degrees, the odds of that being correct are slim to none. But on the other hand if I said that next week the weather would be warmer than normal, my chances of being accurate just about triple.

Right now the weather is behaving more like late July and early August across Minnesota & Wisconsin. Mid and upper level winds are weak, storm system are very slow moving, they produce heavy rain, but only in the areas they are close too. High pressure at the jet stream level is locked over the Midwest for the balance of the next 4 days. Indications are that this ridge will break down slightly by Friday or Saturday. This would allow a cold front to move through with a round of storms. By Sunday this cold front will be moving back north at us as a warm front as the high pressure ridge reestablishes itself across the Middle Tennessee Valley. I believe there is a good chance we will see above normal temperatures right into mid next week. With a stronger cold front possibly cooling us back to near normal or just slightly above by Thursday or Friday of next week. That means highs should generally be above 75 degrees right through the 23rd. As for the best chances for rain. Scattered t-storms are expected from the 16th to 18th. With more widespread coverage of t-storms after the 19th as the jet stream pushes farther south into Minnesota. One or two rounds of severe t-storms will also be possible from the 18th to 21st.

Please remember this is a long range forecast, use it as a trend, not an exact prediction.