Dueling Weather Systems in Dakotas Leave Severe Threat a Question Mark in Twin Cities

July 19, 2017 02:38 PM

The southernmost of two thunderstorms that was expected to fizzle out as it moved east from South Dakota to Minnesota has not dissipated, and that actually means the chance for severe weather in the Twin Cities is shrinking.

That's because that eastward-bound storm is keeping a storm to its north – expected to travel southwest along the Intestate-94 corridor Wednesday afternoon – from taking aim at the metro. 


KSTP Meteorologist Sam Ryan says those dueling systems are creating two weather scenarios for the Twin Cities: one that would bring severe weather, and one that would bring mostly just showers.

The first scenario, if the southern cluster holds up, would spread rain and a few thunderstorms through southwestern and southern Minnesota, including, eventually, the Twin Cities, but limiting the threat of severe weather. In this scenario, the rain would arrive in the metro in the late-afternoon, early-evening hours.

The second scenario comes into play if the southern storm fizzles out. That would make room for the storm system moving through North Dakota to follow a stream along the I-94 corridor toward the Twin Cities, bringing potential severe weather with it.

Scenario two could bring damaging winds, large hail and the potential for a tornado, and would hit the Twin Cities around 8 p.m. to 10 p.m.

For now, Ryan says, scenario number one seems most likely, as the southern system is showing no signs of letting up, as was previously predicted. 

Meanwhile, most of southwestern Minnesota is in the midst of a severe thunderstorm watch until 6 p.m., according to the National Weather Service in the Twin Cities. 

The NWS has issued a severe thunderstorm warning for southwestern Redwood County until 2:45 p.m. that includes the potential for 60 mile per hour winds and quarter-sized hail.

Stay tuned to KSTP.com and 5 EYEWITNESS NEWS for updates.

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Michael Oakes

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