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SurveyUSA Election Poll Results: Minn. Governor, Senate Races

Updated: 06/13/2014 6:37 PM
Created: 06/11/2014 10:00 PM KSTP.com
By: Cassie Hart

Here Are The Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #21336

Geography Surveyed: Minnesota
Data Collected: 06/05/2014 - 06/09/2014
Release Date: 06/10/2014 09:45 ET
Sponsor: KSTP-TV Minneapolis

In MN, GOP Gov Primary is White Hot 2 Months Out; Winner Ready to Tear Into Incumbent Democrat Dayton; Franken Can't Coast Either:

Two months until votes are counted in the Republican Primary for Minnesota Governor, 4 candidates battle for the nomination, with the top 2 tied, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KSTP-TV. Today, Kurt Zellers and Jeff Johnson are even at 23%. They are followed by Marty Seifert at 14% and Scott Honour at 9%.

Regardless of which 1 of the 4 gets the nomination, DFL incumbent Mark Dayton may have a fight on his hands. The same is true of Al Franken in the US Senate contest ... but let's focus on the Governor's race first.

In the Gubernatorial primary, Zellers narrowly outdraws Johnson among Republicans. Johnson narrowly outdraws Zellers among Independents. Conservatives break ever-so-slightly for Zellers; moderates break ever-so-slightly for Johnson. Johnson runs strong in Southern MN, Zellers runs strong in NE MN. The 2 split in the Twin Cities. Zellers' support is younger. Johnson's support is older. Johnson uniquely appeals to middle-income voters.

In hypothetical November match-ups that wheel the 4 Republicans against Dayton, Dayton leads in every case. But never with more than 47% of the vote. Today it's:

* Dayton 46%, Johnson 40%. Dayton by 6.
* Dayton 46%, Zellers 39%. Dayton by 7.
* Dayton 46%, Seifert 38%. Dayton by 8.
* Dayton 47%, Honour 37%. Dayton by 10.

In the Republican Primary for US Senate, Mike McFadden is at 44%, Jim Abeler is at 16%. 40% choose some other candidate, or are undecided. The winner will face Franken 11/04/14.

In hypothetical November match-ups for US Senator, Franken like Dayton may have his hands full. Today it's:

* Franken 48%, McFadden 42%. Franken by 6.
* Franken 48%, Abeler 39%. Franken by 9.

Independence Party candidate Kevin Terrell is a factor, at 4% to 6% of the vote ... and 10% to 12% of the vote among Independents. Franken holds 90% of the DFL base against both McFadden and Abeler. But Abeler is less palatable to MN Independents.

68% of MN voters disapprove of a new $77 million building to provide new offices for the Minnesota Senate. 18% approve.

MN adults by 5:4 say that a light-rail system that will connect Minneapolis and St Paul is not worth the $957 million in taxes cost to build. 51% say the transit connecting Minneapolis to St Paul is not worth the money; 40% say it is worth the cost. Of those who live in the counties the light rail serves, 6% say they will use transit regularly, 28% say they will use it occasionally, 65% they will almost never use light rail.

Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 2,200 state of Minnesota adults 06/05/14 through 06/09/14. Of the adults, 2,032 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 1,017 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/04/14 general election, 404 were determined to be likely to vote in the 08/12/14 primary election. Of the adults, 1,177 live in Greater Minneapolis and were asked how often they will ride light rail. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

1

  Asked of 404 likely GOP primary voters

  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 5%

If the Republican Primary for Minnesota Governor were today, which Republican would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Jeff Johnson? Kurt Zellers? Scott Honour? Marty Seifert ? Or some other Republican?

23%

Jeff Johnson

23%

Kurt Zellers

9%

Scott Honour

14%

Marty Seifert

11%

Other

22%

Undecided

2

  Asked of 404 likely GOP Primary voters

  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 5%

If the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Minnesota were today, which Republican would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Mike McFadden? Jim Abeler? Or some other Republican?

44%

Mike McFadden

16%

Jim Abeler

19%

Other

21%

Undecided

3

  Asked of 1017 likely November voters

  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 3.1%

If the November general election for Minnesota Governor were today, and the only candidates on the ballot were Republican Jeff Johnson, DFL candidate Mark Dayton, and Independence Party candidate Hannah Nicollet, who would you vote for?

40%

Jeff Johnson (R)

46%

Mark Dayton (DFL)

5%

Hannah Nicollet (IP)

2%

Other

6%

Undecided

4

  Asked of 1017 likely November voters

  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 3.1%

OK, what if it the only candidates for Governor were Republican Kurt Zellers, DFL candidate Mark Dayton, and Independence Party candidate Hannah Nicollet?

39%

Kurt Zellers (R)

46%

Mark Dayton (DFL)

6%

Hannah Nicollet (IP)

3%

Other

5%

Undecided

5

  Asked of 1017 likely November voters

  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 3.1%

What if it were Republican Scott Honour, DFL candidate Mark Dayton, and Independence Party candidate Hannah Nicollet?

37%

Scott Honour (R)

47%

Mark Dayton (DFL)

7%

Hannah Nicollet (IP)

3%

Other

6%

Undecided

6

  Asked of 1017 likely November voters

  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 3.1%

And what if it were Republican Marty Seifert, DFL candidate Mark Dayton, and Independence Party candidate Hannah Nicollet?

38%

Marty Seifert (R)

46%

Mark Dayton (DFL)

7%

Hannah Nicollet (IP)

3%

Other

6%

Undecided

7

  Asked of 1017 likely November voters

  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 3.1%

If the November general election for United States Senator from Minnesota were today, and the only candidates on the ballot were Republican Mike McFadden, DFL candidate Al Franken, and Independence Party candidate Kevin Terrell, who would you vote for?

42%

Mike McFadden (R)

48%

Al Franken (DFL)

4%

Kevin Terrell (IP)

1%

Other

5%

Undecided

8

  Asked of 1017 likely November voters

  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 3.1%

What if the only candidates for United States Senator were Republican Jim Abeler, DFL candidate Al Franken, and Independence Party candidate Kevin Terrell?

39%

Jim Abeler (R)

48%

Al Franken (DFL)

6%

Kevin Terrell (IP)

2%

Other

5%

Undecided

9

  Asked of 1017 likely November voters

  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 3.1%

All 134 members of the Minnesota House of Representatives are up for re-election in November. If the election were held today, would you most likely vote for a Republican or Democrat in your local Minnesota House of Representatives race? Or would you vote for a member of another party?

45%

Republican

42%

Democrat

5%

Other

8%

Undecided

10

  Asked of 2200 Adults

  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 2%

The Minnesota Legislature approved the construction of a new $77-million dollar office building to provide new offices for the Minnesota Senate. Do you approve or disapprove of this project?

18%

Approve

68%

Disapprove

14%

Not Sure

11

  Asked of 2200 Adults

  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 2.1%

A new light rail transit line will open this month connecting downtown Minneapolis and downtown St. Paul. Metro Transit says it will take about 48-minutes to travel 11 miles from Minneapolis to St. Paul. Do you think the new light rail transit line will be worth the 957-million dollars in state and federal money needed to build it? Or not worth it?

40%

Worth The Money

51%

Not Worth It

10%

Not Sure

12

  Asked of 1177 metro Minneapolis adults

  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 2.8%

Will you use the new light rail line ... Regularly? Occasionally? Or almost never?

6%

Regularly

28%

Occasionally

65%

Almost Never

1%

Not Sure

x

  Complete Interactive Crosstabs

i

  Statement of Methodology

!

  © 2014 SurveyUSA / Contractual Obligations


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