Survey USA Poll: Obama's Lead Cut in Half Since Last Poll

RESULTS OF SURVEY USA/KSTP Poll

In the election for President of the United States, three months till voting begins, Barack Obama captures the North Star State's 10 electoral votes, defeating Mitt Romney 46 percent to 40 percent, according to a SurveyUSA poll for KSTP-TV in Minneapolis / St. Paul.

Romney and Obama are effectively even among male voters. All of Obama's advantage comes from female voters, where Obama leads by 14 points. Romney edges Obama among Minnesota's Independents, but not by enough to offset Obama's 2:1 advantage among Minnesota's moderates. Romney leads in Northeastern Minnesota, but Obama leads in the rest of the state.

Voters are divided over whether job creation or health care is the most important issue facing Minnesotans. Importantly: those who say health care is most important split evenly between Obama and Romney. Those who say job creation is most important split evenly between Obama and Romney. Neither candidate has an advantage on these issues in Minnesota.

Romney voters are divided on which Republican Romney should pick as his running mate. 36% name former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty. 29% name Florida's U.S. Senator Marco Rubio.

In an election for U.S. Senator from Minnesota today, incumbent DFL candidate Amy Klobuchar soundly defeats Republican challenger Kurt Bills, 55 percent to 31 percent. Klobuchar leads among men and women, young and old, rich and poor, and in all regions of the state. 21 percent of those who vote for Mitt Romney for President cross over and vote for the DFL candidate for U.S. Senate.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 700 adults July 17 through July 19. Of them, 621 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 552 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote on or before Election Day Nov. 6. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (74 percent of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (26 percent of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.
 
1   Asked of 552 likely voters
  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.3%  

If the election for President were today, would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Republican Mitt Romney? Democrat Barack Obama? Or one of the other candidates?  

40% Mitt Romney (R)
46% Barack Obama (D)
7% Other
7% Undecided

2   Asked of 552 likely voters
  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.2%  

Minnesota will also elect a United States Senator in November. If the election for United States Senator from Minnesota were today, would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Republican Kurt Bills? DFL candidate Amy Klobuchar? Or one of the other candidates?  

31% Kurt Bills (R)
55% Amy Klobuchar (DFL)
5% Other
9% Undecided

3   Asked of 552 likely voters
  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.3%  

Which one issue will be most important when casting your votes in for President and US Senate? Health care? Job creation? Taxes? Gas prices? War on terrorism? Education? Or something else?  

31% Health Care
31% Job Creation
15% Taxes
4% Gas Prices
2% War On Terrorism
4% Education
8% Something Else
5% Not Sure

4   Asked of 552 likely voters
  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.3%  

Who would you most like to see Mitt Romney choose as his Vice Presidential running mate? Former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty? Ohio Senator Rob Portman? Florida Senator Marco Rubio? Wisconsin Representative Paul Ryan? Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal? Or someone else?  

35% Pawlenty
4% Portman
16% Rubio
7% Ryan
3% Jindal
21% Someone Else
14% Not Sure

5   Asked of 552 likely voters
  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.3%  

An amendment to the Minnesota Constitution on the ballot defines marriage as between one man and one woman. Will you vote FOR the amendment? Against the amendment? Or not vote on the measure?  

52% Vote For
37% Vote Against
5% Not Vote
6% Not Sure

6   Asked of 552 likely voters
  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.1%  

An amendment to the Minnesota Constitution on the ballot would require voters to show photo I.D.'s in order to vote on Election Day. Will you vote FOR the amendment? Against the amendment? Or not vote on the measure?  

65% Vote For
28% Vote Against
2% Not Vote
4% Not Sure

7   Asked of 552 likely voters
  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.3%  

If the 2012 elections for the Minnesota Legislature were held today, would you be more likely to vote for a Republican candidate? a Democratic candidate? Independence Party candidate? Or some other candidate?  

40% Republican
45% Democratic
8% Independence Party
2% Other
6% Undecided

8   Asked of 552 likely voters
  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.3%  

Which one issue will be most important when casting your vote for a Minnesota legislator? Job creation? Education? Taxes? Health care? Or something else?  

32% Job Creation
15% Education
27% Taxes
17% Health Care
6% Something Else
2% Not Sure

9   Asked of 552 likely voters
  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.3%  

The Minnesota Legislature passed a Vikings stadium bill in May. If a lawmaker voted in favor of the Vikings stadium would that make you more likely to vote for him in November? Less likely? Or would it make no difference?  

23% More Likely
33% Less Likely
42% No Difference
2% Not Sure

10   Asked of 621 registered voters
  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4%  

Should the new Vikings stadium have a retractable roof?  

55% Yes
23% No
21% Not Sure

x   Complete Interactive Crosstabs
i   Statement of Methodology
!   © 2012 SurveyUSA / Contractual Obligations
 

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