KSTP/SurveyUSA Poll Results: Minn. Amendments; Presidential Race

A constitutional amendment that would define marriage in Minnesota as between 1 man and 1 woman remains today as it was 2 weeks ago, nose-to-nose, too-close-to-call, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KSTP-TV in the Twin Cities. 48% of Minnesota likely voters today vote Yes on the marriage amendment, 47% vote No, within the survey's possible sources of error. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll 2 weeks ago, Yes is up 1 point, No is up 1 point. Yes had led by 1, Yes still leads by 1. Any outcome is possible.

In an election in Minnesota today for President of the United States, Barack Obama defeats Mitt Romney 50% to 43%. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll 2 weeks ago, Obama is flat, Romney is up 3 points. Obama had led by 10, now leads by 7, with 7 days of the campaign remaining. The seesaw among Independent voters continues: In July, Romney led among Independents. In September, Obama led. Two weeks ago, Romney led. Today, the contest is tied, 41% to 41%. Among voters with some college education, there is movement to Romney: 2 weeks ago, Obama led this group by 15 points; today, tied. Among voters age 50+, Obama had led by as much as 13 points, now 6. The gender gap is 10 points: Obama leads among men by 2 points. Obama leads among women by 12 points.

In an election for United States Senator from MN today, incumbent DFL candidate Amy Klobuchar defeats Republican challenger 60% to 29%. Compared to 2 weeks ago, Klobuchar has expanded her lead by 3 points, from a 28-point advantage then to a 31-point advantage today.

Compared to 2 weeks ago, a proposed amendment to the Minnesota constitution that would require voters to present a photo ID is largely unchanged: 55% today vote Yes, 40% vote No.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 700 state of MN adults 10/26/12 through 10/28/12. Of the adults, 631 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 574 were judged by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/06/12 election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (74% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (26% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.


1   Asked of 574 likely voters
    Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.2%  

If the election for President were today, would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Republican Mitt Romney? Democrat Barack Obama? Or one of the other candidates?  

43% Mitt Romney (R)
50% Barack Obama (D)
4% Other
3% Undecided

2   Asked of 574 likely voters
    Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.1%  

Minnesota will also elect a United States Senator in November. If the election for United States Senator from Minnesota were today, would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Republican Kurt Bills? DFL candidate Amy Klobuchar? Or one of the other candidates?  

29% Kurt Bills (R)
60% Amy Klobuchar (DFL)
4% Other
7% Undecided

3   Asked of 574 likely voters
    Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.2%  

Which one issue will be most important when casting your votes for President and US Senate? Health care? Job creation? Taxes? Gas prices? War on terrorism? Education? Or something else?  

26% Health Care
31% Job Creation
13% Taxes
4% Gas Prices
4% War On Terrorism
7% Education
12% Something Else
3% Not Sure

4   Asked of 574 likely voters
    Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.2%  

Also on the ballot is a ballot measure about marriage. It asks: Shall the Minnesota Constitution be amended to provide that only a union of one man and one woman shall be valid or recognized as a marriage in Minnesota?"  

48% Yes
47% No
5% Undecided

5   Asked of 574 likely voters
    Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.2%  

Also on the ballot is a measure about voter identification. It asks: Shall the Minnesota Constitution be amended to require all voters to present valid photo identification to vote and to require the state to provide free identification to eligible voters, effective July 1, 2013?"  

55% Yes
40% No
5% Undecided

6   Asked of 574 likely voters
    Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.2%  

If the 2012 elections for the Minnesota Legislature were held today, would you be more likely to vote for a Republican candidate? a DFL candidate? Independence Party candidate? Or some other candidate?  

40% Republican
45% DFL
8% Independence Party
6% Other
1% Undecided

Complete Interactive Crosstabs
Statement of Methodology
© 2012 SurveyUSA

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