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Updated: 05/22/2009 3:42 PM KSTP.com | Despite budget, Pawlenty's approval stays strong
Gov. Tim Pawlenty is taking heat for balancing the budget himself. But could that make him vulnerable to any number of DFLers who might run against him if he decides to run for re-election in 2010? Pawlenty hasn't said if he'll even run for a third term, but a new KSTP/Survey USA Poll gives an idea of his chances to win. Several Democrats have officially announced they plan to run for governor in 2010. Many others are simply the focus of speculation. The survey puts the potential Democratic candidates up against Pawlenty in hypothetical match-ups. It was a bruising legislative session for Democrats like House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher. It was also a tough session for Pawlenty, who will be left to make some controversial budget cuts on his own. But in a hypothetical match-up between Pawlenty and Kelliher, the governor holds a 17-point edge. "Whether you're governor or in the legislature and go through a tough session you're going to take some hits for that. My approval rating always goes down during the legislative session. But the legislative approval rating is even lower so it may reflect that," Pawlenty said. The governor also has double-digit leads over other legislative Democrats. Rep. Paul Thissen is in the race, but trails Pawlenty by 19 points according to poll. Over in the senate, John Marty is running for governor. But he's 17 points behind Pawlenty, 51 to 34 percent. Senate Tax Committee Chair Tom Bakk took some heat for authoring a $2 billion tax increase bill. He trails the ‘no new tax’ Pawlenty by 18 points. University of Minnesota political science professor Larry Jacobs sees a pattern developing. "The governor is doing quite well against DFL legislators. Coming out of this session, you'd have to say the governor has held his own," he said. Ramsey County Attorney Susan Gaertner—who doesn't have much name recognition—trails Pawlenty by 14 points, which is better than any legislator. Mark Dayton decided not to run for the U.S. Senate in 2006 as he faced declining approval ratings and a tough re-election bid. But the poll shows he could make a comeback in 2010. In a hypothetical match-up, he trails Pawlenty by just four points—making it a statistical dead-heat. Pawlenty could also face a challenge from Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak if he decides to run. Rybak is five points behind after playing a high-profile role in President Barack Obama's campaign in Minnesota. The mayor of St. Paul is also within striking distance if he chooses to run. Chris Coleman is 11 points behind Pawlenty. Rounding out the top four contenders—former House Minority leader Matt Entenza. He’s 14 points behind Pawlenty—even though he dropped out of the 2006 attorney general's race amid controversy. Thirty-eight percent of the 600 Minnesotans surveyed identified themselves as Democrats, 28 percent as Republicans and 37 percent as Independents. |
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