Updated: 05/14/2009 12:37 PM KSTP.com | 
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By: Tom Hauser
HAUSER: Budget battle vs. Senate recount
Here's an update on the political horse race between the legislative session and the U.S. Senate Recount. As you can see in one of my previous posts from February, I had no idea which we'd have first--a balanced budget or a new U.S. Senator. Here's the update: I STILL HAVE NO IDEA! But I'm going to go out on a limb and predict we'll have a U.S. Senator before the books balance. Why? Well, it's obviously mostly guess work. Here's how I see things playing out on both of these important stories.
SENATE RACE: Oral arguments before the Minnesota Supreme Court will be held in the Coleman/Franken fiasco on June 1st. It usually takes at least a few months for the court to rule after oral arguments. However, state law requires the court to put everything else aside and act as expeditiously as possible in a recount case. Legal experts tell me that means a ruling is likely within two to four weeks after oral arguments on June 1st. Some quick math indicates the ruling will come sometime between June 15th and June 30th. Maybe we could use July 4th to celebrate our independence from recount stories. But not so fast. If the Supreme Court ruling favors Franken by anything less than a unanimous 5-0 margin, or it favors Coleman, all bets are off about what happens next. The state Supreme Court could simply uphold the lower court ruling giving Franken the victory and order Franken be given an election certificate even if Coleman appeals to the U.S. Supreme Court. Our most recent SurveyUSA poll indicates 70% of Minnesotans think Coleman should concede if he loses at the state Supreme Court level. However, the state's high court could remand the case to the Election Contest Court and order more absentee ballots to be opened. In that case, it could be a long summer and might even ruin my 4th of July plans.
LEGISLATURE: There are some key dates to keep in mind in the budget battle as well. The constitutional deadline to adjourn the regular session is Monday, May 18th. But as of today (May 14th), there's nothing remotely resembling a potential agreement between the governor and DFL legislative leaders. The most ominous sign of impending doom is the "lights on" legislation that has now passed both the House and Senate. This bill would essentially continue funding state government at current levels past the end of the fiscal year on June 30th. The fact they're passing such legislation while still in the regular session means lawmakers are not only bracing for a special session, but potentially a long one. In 2005, the legislature and governor forced a partial government shutdown that lasted until mid-July and put 9,000 state workers out of a job for a couple weeks. The "lights on" legislation would prevent that, but it could lead to the governor "unalloting" parts of the state budget to prevent the state from going into deficit spending after July 1st. Unless the governor agrees to increase taxes (don't count on it), or the legislature agrees to budget gimmicks and borrowing (don't count on that, either) it looks like this budget battle will go into overtime and push right up to June 30th.
THE HORSE RACE: The Senate Recount wins the race by the length of a hanging chad. A senator will be seated by the end of June. As always, I have a caveat. The budget battle will be over much sooner if the governor agrees to an "Election Impact Fee" of $5,000 on each voter who improperly casts an absentee ballot or fails to properly fill in an oval on a regular ballot. That might actually create a budget surplus.
