Updated: 10/21/2009 4:42 PM KSTP.com | Print |  Email
By: Dave Dahl

What does the current El Nino mean for the coming winter?

If you love winter or hate it, you probably would love to know what kind of winter we're going to have here in Minnesota this year.  If you do hate winter, I find it hard to believe that you live here.  Even during a mild Minnesota winter, we can have nights that drop to at least 20 degrees below zero.  If we happen to get a harsh winter, we can have a week straight where temperatures don't get much above zero for highs with overnight lows dropping to near 30 degrees below zero. 

Having said all of that, forecasting a Minnesota winter can be as difficult as finding that needle in a hay stack!  When El Niños have been present in the past, it usually means we'll have a milder than normal winter.  Finding a connection with the snow part of the equation can be more difficult. 

Take for example what happened in the winter of 1983-84.  We were in the midst of the strongest El Nino on record.  We ended up with the heaviest snow on record for the Twin Cities, which still stands as 98.6 inches for the winter season.  During the winter of 1981-82 we ended up with 95 inches of snow and we were in a neutral season, with neither an El Nino nor a La Nina present.

At this point I'd have to say we’re leaning toward slightly colder than normal temperatures for the winter, and slightly heavier snowfall.  The normal snowfall for the Twin Cities is 55.9 inches.  I'll come out with my annual "snowometer" prediction on October 15th at 10 PM on 5 Eyewitness News.

Have a great day!

Meteorologist Dave Dahl